区域金融发展与消费水平的实证分析——以江西为例

An Empirical Analysis on the Regional Financial Development and the Consumption level——A Case of Jiangxi

本文选取江西省1985~2013年时间序列数据,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和向量误差修正模型对江西省金融发展与居民消费进行相关性研究。结果表明：在长期,金融发展与居民消费之间存在正相关关系,金融发展每提高1%,居民消费率提高0.274%;人均收入增长对居民消费支出有促进作用,通货膨胀、城市化对居民消费支出有抑制作用。格兰杰因果检验结果表明,金融发展、通货膨胀和城市化是居民消费率的单向格兰杰原因,人均收入增长与居民消费支出存在双向格兰杰因果关系。

Selecting the time series data of Jiangxi province from 1985 to 2013 and using the cointegration test, the Granger causality test and vector error correction model, the paper makes an empirical research on the relationship between the financial development and the consumption of residents in Jiangxi province. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the financial development and the residents＇ consumption in the long term. That is, every 1% increase in the financial development will lead to the rise of the residents＇ consumption rate by 0.274%. In addition, per capita income growth will promote the consumption, but the infla- tion and urbanization will inhibit the consumption. Furthermore, the Granger causality test results show that the financial development, inflation and urbanization is one-way Granger cause of the residents＇ consumption rate and that there is two-way Granger causality between per capita income growth and the residents＇ consumption spending.