雨天高速公路营运车辆行驶速度分布规律研究

Analysis of Commercial Vehicle Speed on Freeway under Rainy Weather

车速分布是分析不同天气条件下高速公路交通事故,并制订事故预防管理措施的重要依据。为此,充分利用车联网公司对营运车辆监控所生成的海量数据进行车速研究,对比分析了晴/雨天条件下高速公路营运车辆行车速度特点。对车速标准差分析表明,小雨天气下车速离散程度较大,达到20.27;而大雨天气下因车速普遍较低,车速离散程度反而相对较小。之后,通过P-P图与单样本KS检验方法验证了小雨和中雨天气下的车速分布符合正态分布特征。对不同天气条件下的车速进行K均值聚类分析,结果显示,当聚类数为3时,聚类中心的平均车速可较好地反映晴天、小雨以及中雨时的平均车速;当聚类数为4时,则聚类中心的平均车速无法与4种天气条件对应,可见中雨与大雨条件下的车速差别较小。研究可为雨天高速公路营运车辆的管理提供理论依据。

The analysis of vehicle speed distribution under different weather conditions is important for studying traffic accidents and formulating accident prevention countermeasures on freeways.A comparative analysis of vehicle speed under different weather conditions is carried out based on vehicle speed data collected by various transportation companies.Analysis to the standard deviation of speed shows that the degree of speed dispersion is as high as 20.27 on rainy days;while it is relatively lower in heavy rain because the speed is generally slower.Distribution of vehicle speed in rain is found to be in accordance with normal distribution through P-P frequency distribution diagram and a single sample K-S test.K-Means Cluster analysis of the vehicle speed under different weather conditions shows that when the number of clusters n=3,the value of the cluster center can well reflect the average speed under the weather of sunny,light rain and moderate rain.When the number of clusters n=4,the one-to-one correspondence between the average speed of the cluster centers and 4different weather conditions cannot be established,which indicates that the difference between the speed distribution under moderate rain and heavy rain is very small.The results can provide guidance for the speed control and management of commercial vehicles on freeways under rainy weather.