2016年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the China's Mainland,April 2016

目的评估2016年4月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计4月全国报告事件数和病例数较3月将有所增加。近期我国仍有可能出现黄热病、寨卡病毒病、登革热、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传播传染病的输入性病例,广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等重点省(自治区)存在输入后发生本地传播或小规模聚集性病例的可能,应加强蚊媒监测和控制。近期流感活动仍将处于高水平,但随着气温升高,暴发疫情数量会逐步回落。人感染H7N9禽流感疫情仍将呈散发态势,不排除继续出现其他亚型动物流感病例的可能。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐增强,重症和死亡病例将陆续增多。我国持续存在埃博拉出血热和中东呼吸综合征等的输入风险,但输入后导致大规模疫情的可能性极低。结论 2016年4月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,较3月将有所增加;需关注寨卡病毒病、黄热病、流行性感冒、人禽流感、手足口病等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher than that in March 2016. More imported cases of vector-bone diseases,including yellowfever,Zika virus infection,dengue and chikungunya,would continue to be found and autochthonous transmission or small clusters might occur in Guangdong,Yunnan,Hainan,Fujian,Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces,where the vector surveillance and control should be strengthened. The activity of seasonal influenza would remain at a high level; however,with the increase of the temperature,the incidence of seasonal influenza would decline gradually. More sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would occur,and sporadic cases of human infection with other animal influenza viruses might occur too. The activity of hand foot and mouth disease（ HMFD） would increase gradually with more severe cases and deaths. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease and Middle East respiratory syndrome to China still exists,but the possibility of large-scale transmission in China is very low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April would be higher than that in March 2016,similar to the same period in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of Zika virus infection,yellowfever,seasonal influenza,human infection with avian influenza viruses and HFMD.