2010-2014年陕西省宝鸡市手足口病流行特征分析及2015年发病趋势预测

Epidemiology of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2010- 2014 and incidence prediction in 2015 in Baoji,Shaanxi

目的了解陕西省宝鸡市手足口病流行病学特征和流行趋势,为制定有效的防控措施提供参考依据。方法对2010-2014年宝鸡市手足口病疫情进行描述性研究,采用流行控制图法对2015年发病趋势进行预测。结果 2010-2014年宝鸡市累计报告手足口病患者18 585例,其中重症病例162例,死亡10例,年发病率为99.31/10万,发病高峰为5-7月,高发年龄为1~4岁儿童,普通病例以肠道病毒71型（EV71）、柯萨奇病毒A组16型（Cox A16）感染为主,重症病例以EV71感染为主。结论流行控制图法预测2015年1-21周手足口病目标值与宝鸡市实际发病数基本接近,根据每周上报的实际数,参考疫情控制图的预警线和行动线做出及时的对策和应急反应,防止手足口病的暴发疫情。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease（ HFMD） in Baoji of Shaanxi province,and provide scientific evidence for the development of effective prevention and control measures. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted by using the incidence data of HFMD in Baoji from 2010 to 2014. The incidence trend was predicted by using epidemic control chart. Results A total of 18 585 HFMD cases were reported during2010- 2014,including 162 severe cases and 10 deaths. The average annual incidence was 99. 31 / lakh. The annual incidence peak was during May-July. The disease mainly occurred in age group 1- 4 years,especially in those aged 1 year. Most cases were caused by EV71 or Cox A16,but most severe cases were caused by EV71. Conclusion The predicted incidence of HFMD during 1st- 21 stweeks 2015 was similar to actual level in Baoji,According to the weekly reported case number,timely response can be made based on the early warning line and action line of epidemic control chart.