中国交通运输碳排放格局及其与经济增长的关系研究

Pattern of transportation carbon emission and relationship with transportation economic growth in China

运用自上而下法、协调度模型和脱钩模型,探讨20世纪90年代快速城市化以来中国省域交通运输碳排放格局及其与行业经济增长的响应关系。结果表明:1)交通运输碳排放整体快速递增,东部排放量最高,中西部次之,省域空间非均衡性愈发明显,1995和2003年广东排放量最高,2012年山东排放量最高,青海始终最低。2)交通运输碳排放与行业经济增长的耦合度与协调度不高,呈现先减后增的非同步态势,空间差异较小,轻度失调比重最高,两者以弱脱钩为主转向以扩张负脱钩为主,脱钩状态由较为理想转向不理想,交通运输碳排放速度愈发快于行业经济增长速度。

Taking the 30 provinces in China as a study case,this article used the top- down calculation,coordinating degree model and decoupling state model to study the spatial evolution of transportation carbon emission pattern and relationship with transportation economic growth in 1995,2003 and 2012. The results showed that：（ 1） The transportation carbon emission rapidly increased as a whole since 1995,and the transportation carbon emission in eastern area was the highest,followed by medium area and western area. The spatial imbalances of transportation carbon emission among provinces were becoming increasingly obvious,the highest value was observed in Guangdong in 1995 and 2003,and the highest value was observed in Shandong in 2012,and the lowest value was always observed in Qinghai.（ 2） The coupling degree and coordinating degree between them were at low level on the whole,showing decreased firstly and increased afterward in non- synchronous situation. The spatial differences of coupling degree and coordinating degree were not obvious. The coordinating degree mainly showed the mild discord. The weak decoupling was the main decoupling state between them during 1995- 2003,and the expansion negative decoupling was the main decoupling state between them during 2003- 2012,and the decoupling relationship tended to be deterioration. The growth rate of transportation carbon emission was significantly faster than the growth rate of transportation economic growth.