双重互动与南亚安全秩序构建

Twofold Interactions and the Construction of a South Asian Security Order

秩序是指客观现状与主导国意志一致的状态。目前南亚并不存在一种被广泛接受的安全秩序,就其现状而言,在体系层面呈现出"失衡性"和"交织性"特征,这是构建南亚安全秩序的起点。失衡性决定了印度在传统安全上是南亚主导国的逻辑,而交织性则意味着主导国意志存在被影响的空间,这种状况在中国崛起的背景下更是如此。目前,印度在构建安全秩序方面的价值取向尚不能通过其官方文件来解读,但很大程度上可通过其与一些关键国家在南亚的战略互动进行解读。在南亚地区,中国的崛起一方面使中印在传统地缘政治领域的竞争加剧,另一方面则使"发展导向"成为包括印度在内的国家解决非传统安全问题的主流思维。第一种互动主要是竞争框架下的中印地缘互动模式;第二种互动主要是合作框架下的"中—印—南亚邻国"互动模式。未来,这两种战略互动模式的发展方向,将折射出南亚主导国的意志选择,从而从根本上影响南亚安全秩序转型的方向。

Security order refers to a state in which the current security situation complies with the value preferences of the leading power. In the case of South Asia, so far there does not exist a widely accepted security order. The current security situation in South Asia features asymmetry and complexity. India is widely assumed to be the dominant regional power but its conduct of foreign policy is not immune to other major powers' influence. As a leading power of South Asia, India's value preference in shaping future security order is hard to conclude from its official statements. However, by examining India's strategic interactions with China and South Asian countries respectively, the preferences that India might adopt for regional order building could be discerned. China's rise has intensified the geopolitical competition between China and India on theone hand, and help mainstream the 'development-oriented' model into regional countries approaches to nontraditional security challenges on the other. This implies that interactions between China and India will be conducted in a twofold framework: a geopolitically competitive framework and a cooperative triangular framework between China, India, and common South Asian neighbors. The evolution of the twofold framework will reflect the preferences of South Asia's leading powers and determine the orientation of the regional security order.