珠江—西江经济带经济重心偏移特征及区域经济差异研究

Research on the Characteristics of Economic Focus Shift and Regional Economic Difference of thePearl River-Xijiang River Economic Belt

结合重心模型和基尼系数分解模型研究珠江—西江经济带经济重心偏移特征及区域经济差异,发现:珠江—西江经济带经济重心偏移的带状特征比较明显,地理因素和经济发展因素是影响重心偏移的两个重要因素。2001-2005年间,地区生产总值重心向东偏南方向移动,但在2006年以后其重心偏移方向发生逆转,向西偏北方向移动。三次产业发展演变呈现出在前期以第一产业发展为主,中后期以第二、第三产业发展为主的演变特点。区域经济差异在2003-2013年间经历了从逐渐增加到逐渐减小的变化过程,这期间结构性效应、集中效应和综合效应对区域差异扩大的推动作用总体上是逐渐减弱的;第二、三产业的区域发展差异也经历了由逐渐增加到逐步减小的变动过程。结构效应和集中效应在2009年以前引起的基尼系数的变化量都较大,且对地区差异的扩大起到推动作用,但是这种推动作用呈减弱趋势,并在2009年以后转变成抑制地区发展差异扩大的主要力量。

The thesis studies the characteristics of the economic focus shift and regional economic difference in the Pearl River-Xijiang River economic belt through the gravity model and Gini coefficient decomposition model.It finds that the belt-shaped characteristic of the economic focus shift in the Pearl River-Xijiang River economic belt appears to be evident,and the geographical factor and economic development are the main causes which made this happen.From 2001 to 2005,the focus of the regional GDP shifted from east by south,while the direction reversed after 2006,shifted toward west by north.The evolution of the three industrial developments featured that the primary industry possessed the priority in the early stage,and then the secondary and tertiary industry shared the priority in the middle and later period.The regional economic difference has experienced the process from gradual increase to gradual decrease during the period of 2003-2013.During this period,the impact of the structural effects,concentration effect and comprehensive effect on expanding the regional development difference is gradually weakened.The regional development difference of the secondary and tertiary industry has also experienced a change from a gradual increase to a gradual decrease,the variation of the Gini coefficient caused by structural effects and concentration effect was considerably great before 2009,and stimulated to expand the regional differences.However,this stimulative effect appeared to be weakened,and transformed into the main force to restrain the expansion of regional development differences.