低油价下石油产业发展模式变迁分析

The Evolution of Mode of Growth of Oil Industry in Low Oil Price Era

石油产业在高油价下形成的发展模式目前正在遭受低油价带来的严峻挑战。全球石油产业自上世纪70年代以来,发展模式基本上随油价变迁而变化,具体可以划分为5个阶段,每个阶段各有其特点。本轮石油产业发展模式的调整和历史上低油价时期的模式调整均与经济危机的发生有关,这是其相似性。不同之处在于本轮经济危机持续时间可能更长,石油公司的决策变得更加理性,不热衷于扩大规模。全球经济进入全面复苏阶段尚需时日,欧佩克不减产政策的延续以及美国页岩油气产业顽强的技术创新能力,使得石油产业在低油价下具有生存空间,中长期国际油价低位运行的可能性极大。综合考虑低油价走势及石油产业模式变迁内外环境的差异,今后全球石油产业发展模式将朝着集市场运作、产业方向转型及行业管理创新于一体的"三位一体"的方向发展。

The mode of growth of the oil industry that came into being when oil prices stayed high is fac-ing a great challenge posed by low oil prices.The mode of growth of the global oil industry has basically been changing along with oil prices since the 1970 s and the changes have experienced five major phases,each of which has its characteristics.The ongoing change in the mode of growth of the oil industry,as with historical changes in low oil price eras,has something to do with the economic crisis and this is the similarity shared by these changes in different times.The difference lies in that the currently ongoing economic cri-sis may last longer and oil companies ′ decision making has become more rational — they are no longer wild about increasing investment.The world economy still has some way to go before a full recovery begins.The extension of OPEC′s no-cut policy and the American shale oil and gas industry ′s tenacious technical innovation ability have provided room for the oil industry to tide over a low oil price era.In the medium and long term,international oil prices are very likely to remain at low levels.Taking both the trend of low oil prices and the difference between the internal and external environmental factors affecting the evolution of the mode of growth of the oil industry into consideration,we believe a trinity of market-driven operation,growth pattern transition and industry management innovation will be the future of the global oil industry.