通货膨胀预期、企业成长性与企业投资

Inflation Expectation,Growth and Firm Investment

本文实证检验了通货膨胀预期对企业投资行为的影响及其内部机理,分析了通货膨胀预期变化的经济后果。研究发现,预期通货膨胀率的上升会促使微观企业增加当期资本支出规模,但是降低了投资效率。进一步分析结果表明:第一,预期通货膨胀率越高,高成长性企业的投资水平显著提高,投资效率显著下降,这一结果在低成长性企业中并不显著;第二,预期通货膨胀率升高,银行更愿意借款给企业,这一结果在高成长性企业中同样显著,在低成长性企业中并不显著。这说明通货膨胀预期通过外部融资促使公司投资,高成长性企业比低成长性企业能够获得更多的银行贷款,从而增加资本投资,而低成长性企业受通货膨胀预期的影响被弱化。

It empirically testes the impact of inflation expectations （IE） on firm investment behavior and its internal mechanism to analyze the economic consequence of IE. It finds that the higher the Expected Inflation Rate （EIR）, the higher is the investment level, but the investment efficiency is significantly lower. Further analysis shows that： first, the EIR is higher, the investment level is significantly improved in high-growth firms （ HGF）, while the investment efficiency is significantly decreased, but this result is not significant in the low-growth firms （LGF） ; second, the EIR is higher, the firm is easier to get bank loans. It is also significant in HGF, and not significant in LGF. This shows that IE prompts the firms to invest through external financing, HGF get more bank loans than LGF and then increase their capital investment, while the impact of IE in LGF is weakened.