居民对房价的预期如何影响房价变动

How Does the Residents' Expected Price Affect Housing Price Change?

许多研究表明房价变动难以被经济基本面因素完全解释。市场参与者对房价的预期被认为是影响房价变动的重要因素;在土地供给缺乏弹性的情况下,居民的房价预期对房价的影响更加显著。本文利用2012—2013年中国7个重点城市开展的"中国城镇居民房价预期与购房行为专项调查"的季度数据对居民房价预期影响房价变动的内在经济机制进行了实证研究。研究发现,居民对房价的预期会显著影响其购房需求,从而影响未来房价的变化,本城市内居民对房价的预期水平每提高1个百分点,下一期房价增长率相应提高1.04%。本文利用微观数据和宏观数据的联合分析有效缓解了可能的内生性问题,研究结论对于理解房价波动和宏观调控工具的有效性具有重要的意义。

Many studies have shown that housing price volatility can hardly be explained by economic fundamentals. The market participants＇ price expectations are considered to play an important role in affecting housing price volatility; in the case of inelastic land supply, the impact of residents are more significant. This paper empirically tests the economic mechanism of expectation＇ s impact on housing price change with the quarterly micro household survey data during 2012- 2013 in seven major cities in China. The results show that, the residents＇ expectation on housing market can significantly affect their demand for home purchasing, and can affect the price volatility. Specifically, when the residents＇ expectation level increases one percentage point, the city＇ s housing price growth rate increases 1.04 percent. The study effectively solves the endogeneity problem by the joint analysis of microscopic and macroscopic data, and the conclusion is important To understand housing price volatility and the validity of macro regulatory tools.