2005～2014年山东省水资源承载力评价

Evaluation on Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province during 2005-2014

[目的]研究山东省水资源承载力状况。[方法]根据2005~2014年《山东省统计年鉴》和《山东省水资源公报》等,选取总人口、城镇化率、水资源总量等14个指标,建立水资源承载力指标体系,运用主成分分析法计算主成分的特征值和贡献率,得到影响山东省水资源承载力的两大主成分因子,并对2005~2014年的水资源承载力趋势进行评价。[结果]在水资源相对短缺的情况下,2005~2014年山东省水资源承载力呈逐年上升趋势,原因可能与人口、经济发展和水资源综合利用现状有关。[结论]转变经济发展方式和运用科学技术可有效缓解水资源压力,提高水资源承载力。

[Objective] The aim was to study water resource carrying capacity status in Shandong Province. [Method] According to Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province during 2005- 2014 and Bulletin of Water Resources in Shandong Province,selecting 14 indicators such as total population,urbanization rate,total amount of water resources,the indicator system was established,the characteristic value and contribution rate of principle component was calculated by using principle component analysis method. Two principle component factors influencing water resource carrying capacity in Shandong Province were obtained,the tendency during 2005- 2014 was evaluated. [Result]Under the situation of water resource relative shortage,the carrying capacity increased year by year from 2005 to 2014,which may be related to population,economic development and comprehensive utilization status of water resource. [Conclusion] Transforming the economic development mode and applying science and technology can effectively alleviate the pressure of water resources and improve the carrying capacity of water resources.