中国煤炭价格符合Hotelling规则吗?——以山西省为例

Is Chinese Coal Prices in Line with Hotelling Rules?—A Case Study in Shaanxi Province

在中国煤炭市场完全实行市场化机制的情况下,以山西省为例,检验煤炭价格是否符合Hotelling规则。运用可获得的2006年1月—2014年3月的山西同煤集团和山西焦煤集团的原煤制造成本和坑口价月度数据进行Hotelling检验,验证结果表明:山西同煤集团动力煤和山西焦煤集团焦煤Hotelling规则拟合度分别为40.0%和10.7%,二次型拟合度分别为76.0%和69.1%,煤炭价格遵循的规律均出现倒"U形"的"虚高"特征,具体为2006—2011年煤价整体呈现递增态势,2012—2014年煤价整体呈现下降态势。分析倒"U形"特征的主要原因为:煤炭供需结构性矛盾、过度投资,宏观经济调整、石油价格的影响、国家推动节能减排政策等;进而提出政策调整建议。

Following the fully market-oriented mechanisms in the Chinese coal market, we studied whether the coal price was in line with Hotelling rule in the case of Shanxi Province. We tested the Hotelling rule based upon the available monthly data of coal production costs and pithead price from January 2006--March 2014 in Shanxi Datong Coal Mine Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group. The result shows that： the fitness of the Hotelling on the thermal coal of Shanxi Datong Coal Mine Group and eoking coal of Shanxi Coking Coal Group is 40.0% and 10.7% respectively, the fitness of quadratic is 76.0% and 69,1%. Coal price appears to follow the inverted ＂U＂ shaped with ＂inflated＂ value. From 200 to 2011 the coal price shows an increasing trend, while from 2012 to 2014 the coal price shows a decreasing trend. The reasons why it appears ＂U＂ shaped include： the structural contradiction between supply and demand of coal, over investment, macroeconomic adjustment, the effect of oil price, national policies to promote energy conservation and so on. Finally, policy adjustment suggestions are put forward.