少子老龄化、公共养老金支出与提高退休年龄——基于OECD国家的经验比较

The Aging Population with Lower Fertility,Public Pension Expenditures and the Increase in the Retirement Ages Based on the Empirical Comparison among OECD Countries

在人口生育率下降与预期寿命延长的双重作用下,OECD国家普遍出现了少子老龄化危机。根据公共养老金支出水平模型及其参数的敏感性分析,老年抚养比不断上升将导致公共养老金支出水平逐步提高,提高退休年龄将降低老年抚养比并有助于控制公共养老金支出的过快增长。基于此,大多数OECD国家都进行了提高退休年龄的改革。文章对这些国家提高退休年龄的基本条件(人口预期寿命、健康预期寿命、劳动力受教育水平和劳动年龄人口比重)以及政策设计进行了比较分析,其主要经验为:一是在充分考虑宏观经济和人口条件的基础上进行退休年龄调整;二是在一定周期内小步渐进逐步提高退休年龄并设置了改革的窗口期;三是为避免改革的经济效率损失,建立了弹性退休政策、老年人就业促进和保护政策等辅助机制。在此基础上,文章对我国提高退休年龄的条件以及政策设计进行了讨论。

The crisis of aging population with lower fertility has occurred in many OECD countries owing to the decline in total fertility rate and the increase in life expectancy. Accordingto the model of public pension expenditures and sensitivity analysis of its parameters,the gradual rise in the elderly dependency ratio will lead to the step-by-step increase in public pension expenditures in these countries,while the increase in retirement ages will result in the reduction in the elderly dependency ratio and be helpful for the control of the rapid increase in public pension expenditures. Accordingly,many OECD countries have carried out the reform of increasing the retirement ages. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the basic conditions（ life expectancy,health life expectancy,education level of adults and the ratio of working-age population） and policy design of increasing the retirement ages in these countries. It sums up the main experiences as follows： the first is to adjust the retirement ages based on the enough consideration of the macro-economy and population conditions; the second is to increase the retirement ages incrementally and gradually in a certain period and set up the window period of the reform; the third is to establish the assistant mechanisms of increasing the retirement ages in order to avoid the economic efficiency losses of the reform,such as the policy of flexible retirement,and the promotion and protection policy for the old people＇s employment. On this basis,it discusses the conditions and policy design of increasing retirement ages in China.