摘要
世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。
The peak period of world steel output occurred after 2000 and its main contributor for this rapid growth is China＇s steel production. While as an iron ore shortage country, even less than Australia, Brazil, it not only boosts the demand for global seaborne iron ore but also causes a higher external dependency for China＇ s global seaborne iron. At the same time, China, as a net importer of global seaborne iron ore, cannot dominate the price of global seaborne iron ore.. Because of the most bullish international iron ore market in 2011, iron ore producers decided to increase the capital investment in order to expand the production capacity; and hence, the supply and demand fundamentals began to reverse. 2015 has witnessed a big plunge of seaborne iron ore price. Even the most giant iron ore producers are barely profitable or maintain near the break even line with low cash cost, and the high cost of mine is out of market substantively. The Quantitative Easing policy made by U. S. FED intensified the ＂strong supply versus weak demand＂ situation along with the decrease of financial liquidity. The high external dependency for seaborne iron ore will become more severe for China, because the domestic high iron ore projects aye ceased.
出处
《国土资源科技管理》
2016年第3期54-65,共12页
Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources
基金
中国地质调查局资助项目(1212010633903)
