上海低碳城市建设的内涵、目标及路径研究

The Study on the Connotation,Objective and Method of Making Shanghai a Low-carbon City

城市是全球温室气体排放的主要来源,也是应对气候变化的主战场。上海作为以建设全球城市为目标的特大型城市,建设低碳城市不仅是应对国际减排压力、完成国家碳减排目标的需要,也是城市自身可持续发展的内在要求。本文的研究思路:一是测算上海的碳足迹:建立核算架构和测量进程的基准线。确定基准排放水平和排放源,确定上海低碳城市建设的起点;二是规划远景和设定低碳目标:在识别碳排放的主要影响因素及其未来变动趋势的基础上,建立碳排放情景分析模型,分情景预判上海未来30年可能的碳排格局,根据高站位、宽视野、可实现的原则,提出"1强度+3峰值"目标,并将这些发展目标分解成55个单项指标的低碳城市建设指标体系,并给定相应的目标值。三是剖析实现上海低碳城市建设及所面临的主要挑战和差距。四是提出上海低碳城市建设的分阶段目标及六大实现路径。

Global GHGs are mainly from urban areas emission and cities play key role in GHGs mitigation. As to build a low carbon city for Shanghai, it is not only to face the challenge of global climate change but also for self sustainable development needs. The framework of this paper is as following： first to measure Shanghai＇s carbon footprint. Secondly, figure out the determinants and the carbon emission trends and set up a scenario model, so as to set the planning vision and low carbon development targets. The index composed of 55 indicators will be set up to measure the low carbon degree for the city. Target values will be set based on the other world cities and we could find the gap among cites. Thirdly, dig out the challenge Shanghai will face and finally put forward our suggestion on the objectives on different stages and implement approaches.