全球经济失衡:来自国际货币失衡的解释

Global Imbalance: an Explanation from the Perspective of International Monetary Imbalance

全球经济失衡具体表现为美国经常账户差额的持续恶化。本文在现有文献基础上,深入研究了当前国际货币体系偏离世界经济贸易格局而引起的国际货币失衡问题,进而探讨了国际货币失衡与全球经济失衡之间的关系。首先,构建了高度简化的理论分析框架,并推导证明:在美国贸易地位下降而美元国际地位保持不变的情况下,美国经常账户恶化将不可避免。该判断与历史经验相吻合。其次,本文构造了用于测度国际货币格局偏离贸易格局程度的货币失衡指标,使用向量误差修正模型(VECM)进行时间序列分析,发现国际货币失衡与全球经济失衡之间存在长期均衡关系。作者认为,只有提升新兴贸易大国货币地位,降低货币失衡程度,才能实质性地解决全球经济失衡问题。

Global imbalance is indicated by the persistent deterioration of the US current account. On the basis of existing literature, this paper studies the international monetary imbalance caused by the mismatch between the current international monetary system and the architecture of international trade. We further discuss the relationship between this imbalance and global imbalance. First, we build an analytical framework to prove that the US current account deterioration is unavoidable when the US trade status declines while its currency maintains its international status. This conclusion fits historical experience. Second, we construct an indicator to measure the mismatch between the international monetary architecture and trade architecture. Using an error correction model, we find that there is a long-run relationship between international monetary imbalance and global imbalance. We conclude that the global imbalance can be resolved only if major players in international trade have more influence in the international monetary system and the international monetary imbalance is resolved.