辽西地区农业界限温度变化对农业生产的影响

Effect of Agricultural Boundary Temperature Change on Agricultural Production in Western Area of Liaoning

选用辽西地区朝阳站1953～2014年的气候资料,运用气候诊断分析方法,对农业界限温度0℃、10℃的初日、终日期、持续日数和积温进行了研究,并探讨它们对农业生产的影响。结果表明：辽西地区农业界限温度变化显著,0℃界限温度气候倾向率分别为：初日为-2.243 d/10 a,终日为1.091 d/10 a,持续日数为2.834 d/10 a,积温为55.99℃·d/10 a。10℃界限温度气候倾向率分别为：初日为-1.036 d/10 a,终日为1.846 d/10 a,持续日数为2.856 d/10 a,积温为63.271℃·d/10 a。近20年（2005～2014年）与前20年（1953～1972年）相比,0℃、10℃初日分别提前11 d和6 d,终日分别后推4 d和8 d,持续日数分别延长13 d和11 d,积温分别增加246℃·d和251℃·d。界限温度变化对农业生产的影响有正面的,也有负面的,负面影响要大于正面影响。

Using the climate data of western Liaoning district in Chaoyang station during 1953 ～ 2014,used the climate diagnosis analysis method to perform the research on agricultural boundary temperature of 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ of the beginning day and the ending day,duration days and the accumulated temperature,and investigated the impact on agricultural production. The results showed that the agricultural boundary temperature changed significantly in the western of Liaoning province. The tendency rates of0 ℃ boundary temperature limit climate were respectively as follows： beginning day for- 2.243 d / 10 a,ending day for 1.091 d /10 a,duration days for 2.834 d / 10 a,accumulated temperature for 55. 99 ℃ · d / 10 a. The tendency rates of 10 ℃ boundary temperature limit climate were respectively as follows： beginning day for- 1.036 d / 10 a,ending day for 1.846 d / 10 a,duration days for 2.856 d / 10 a,accumulated temperature for 63.271 ℃ ·d / 10 a. Compared recent 20 years（ 2005 ～ 2014） with 20 years ago（ 1953 ～ 1972）,the beginning day of 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ were respectively advanced for 11 d and 6 d,the ending day were respectively delayed for 4 d and 8 d,the duration days were extended for 13 d and 11 d,the accumulated temperatures were increased for 246 ℃ ·d and 251 ℃ · d. The change of boundary temperature existed positive and negative effect on agricultural production,but the negative effect was larger than the positive effect.