POT模型的车辆荷载极值预测及荷载效应

Vehicle Load Extreme Value Prediction and Load Effect Based on POT Model

为了研究车辆荷载的发展变异对桥梁结构的影响,根据渝湛高速公路176 918辆六轴车的动态称重系统实测数据,采用基于极值理论的超越阈值模型预测未来5~20年可能出现的车辆荷载极值,并加载于某典型桥梁进行荷载效应分析。分析结果表明：本文预测的基准期为20年的车辆荷载极值,对1#空心板所产生的弯矩比JTG D60—2015的车辆荷载和挂120大2.40倍和0.47倍。车辆荷载的发展变异能够直接影响现行桥梁结构的安全运营。

In order to study the influence of the development and variation of vehicle load on bridge structure,according to the measured data of 176 918 six axles vehicles on Yuzhan expressway by using weigh-in-motion( WIM) system,the limit values of vehicle loads were predicted in future 5 years to 20 years based on the peak over threshold( POT) model of extreme value theory. The load effect on a typical bridge was analyzed. The result shows that the moment of 1# hollow plate caused by vehicle load limit value in benchmark period for 20 years is 2. 40 times and 0. 47 times bigger than the moment caused by vehicle load of JTG D60—2015 and Hang-120 respectively. The development and variation of the vehicle load directly affect the safety operation of the existing bridge structure.