货币政策,市场预期与房地产价格

Monetary Policy,the Market Expectations and the Real Estate Market

本文研究了货币政策在房地产市场中的传导途径,同时考察了货币政策中的货币渠道和信贷渠道,并将市场参与者的预期纳入到研究模型中,通过理论分析和实证检验我们发现:市场参与者预期是影响房地产价格的重要因素;在货币政策中,货币渠道的影响要比信贷渠道更为显著;房地产市场价格的波动对居民其他消费的挤出效应要大于财富效应,居民消费增长具有自身的规律,较难受到外部政策冲击的影响;存款准备金率是调控商业银行信贷投放总量的有效工具;货币政策和市场预期容易形成闭环联系,在经济景气期容易形成泡沫,因此要坚持货币政策的纪律性,促使形成稳定预期。总而言之,在考虑理性预期条件,基于凯恩斯需求管理理论的货币政策效果受到影响和制约,需要加强供给侧的改革。

In this paper we study the way that monetary policy passes in the real estate market,analyze the monetary and credits channels of monetary policy and factor market participants＇ expectations into the model. Through theoretical analysis and empirical tests,we find that： the most important factor that affect the prices of the real estate market is market expectations,followed by monetary channels,and the credit channel has a limited impact on the real estate industry; to the residents,the fluctuations in the real estate market prices at the same time has the wealth effect and the crowding-out effect and,at present,the strength of both effects is evenly matched,so the impact of the real estate market has no significant effect on the consumption of the residents; at the same time,the consumption growth has its own laws and it is not affected by the impact of external policy shocks; deposit reserve ratio is an effective tool to regulate the total commercial bank credit; monetary channels and the market is expected to easily form a closed-loop contact and thus form a bubble in the economic boom period,so the rigidness and consistency monetary policy shall be insisted on for the formation of rational expectations.