中国省域对外开放度时空格局演化与驱动机制

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Its Driving Mechanism of Economic Opening Rate of Provinces in China

改革开放以来,我国外向型经济快速发展,各地区之间差异显著。经济对外开放度作为衡量国家或地区经济与世界经济融合程度的重要测度,越来越受到关注。该文综合选取全国29个省区作为研究对象,收集样本区域2004-2012年相关经济数据,构建了一套覆盖对外贸易、投资、经济合作和国际旅游四方面全新指标体系,运用因子分析法对各省区经济对外开放度进行综合测算和分类。在ArcGIS、GeoDA、SPSS等分析软件的支持下,综合运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,对我国对外开放度整体差异状况、时空演变特征、空间关联模式以及驱动机制进行详细分析。结果表明,2004-2012年我国省域对外开放度虽然局部波动明显,但总体上仍不断提高,各省区绝对差异有所下降,相对差异有上升趋势;对外开放度局部时间上阶段性特征明显,空间上各省区对外开放度呈现出"东高西低"的整体格局,不仅东、中、西差异巨大,而且区域内部时空分异特征显著;对空间相关性分析表明对外开放度空间集聚特征明显,2004-2012年对外开放度热点地区数量急剧减少,次冷区、冷点区数量不断增加,空间上热点、次热区有自东向中西部转移的趋势;最后综合选取经济发展水平、工业效率、区位条件、政策支持、交通条件、产业结构、城市化进程、市场需求八方面指标定量化研究对外开放度驱动机制,认为核心驱动力由2004年的工业驱动力转化为2012年的城市化驱动力和市场驱动力,城市化进程和市场需求成为推动当前对外开放度时空格局演变的核心力量。

Since China′s reform and opening up,China′s export-oriented economy has fast development,the difference between various areas is significant.The economic opening rate as an index to measure integration level of regional economy and world economic,has become more and more important.Comprehensive selection of 29 provinces and regions as the research objects,this paper collected the sample area economic data from 2004 to 2012,set up a set of index system which includes four aspects of foreign trade,foreign investment,foreign economic cooperation and international tourism.The factor analysis method was used to calculate the economic opening rate.And with the support of ARCGIS,GEODA,SPSS and other analysis software,exploratory spatial data analysis method was used to analyze the differences in characteristics,spatial association patterns and driving mechanism.Results showed：the local economic opening rate fluctuated significantly during 2004-2012,but overall openness continued to improve,the absolute difference was decreased,and the relative difference had an upward trend,the opening degree of the local time was obvious,in the space,the overall pattern of ＂ East High and West Low＂ had appeared,not only the differences in eastern,central and western were huge,but also the characteristics of spatial-temporal differences were significant.Spatial correlation analysis showed that the opening degree had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,the number of hot spots in the opening degree had drastically reduced,the number of cold area were sustained growth,in space,the hot spots had the tendency of shifting from east to west.Finally,eight indexes were selected to quantitatively study the driving mechanism of opening degree,the core driving force from the industrial driving force in 2004 transformed into the driving force of urbanization and market in 2012,urbanization and market demand were the core strength to promote the temporal-spatial evolution in the economic opening degree.