国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统及其对2014/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的预测

The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beijing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Nio Event

厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)作为其年际变率支配模态,对我国季节气候预测有着非常重要的指示意义。在过去30年里,ENSO自身属性、类型和气候影响发生了显著改变,为我国气候预测和防灾减灾带来了前所未有的挑战。2012年以来,国家气候中心组织研发了新一代ENSO监测、分析和预测业务系统(SEMAP2.0),目的是切实提升ENSO监测预测业务能力。SEMAP2.0综合集成了国内外多项ENSO研究新成果,并自主研发了多项ENSO诊断预测新技术。该系统包括实时监测、动力学诊断一归因分析、两类ENSO物理统计预报模型、气候模式集合预报解释应用、以及相似一动力预报订正等五个子系统。20年独立样本检验显示,集合平均Nino3.4海温指数提前6个月预报的时间距平相关系数达到0.8。该系统已于2015年底正式业务运行,每月实时提供业务产品。在业务应用方面,该系统2014年春季给出了基本反映实际的夏秋季厄尔尼诺演变趋势预测,较为准确地预报出了2014/2015年冬季弱中部型厄尔尼诺状态和2015年春季以后厄尔尼诺的持续发展趋势以及向东部型的转换过程,准确定位出2014/2016事件峰值时间和强度并预计此次事件在2016年春末结束。

El Nino-South Oscillation（ENSO）,as a dominant mode on the inter-annual variability,has a big implication in short-term climate prediction in China.In the past three decades,significant changes occurred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties,types and climate impacts,which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in China.Since 2012,Beijing Climate Center in China Meteorological Administration（BCC/CMA） has pushed forward the research and development for the new generation of ENSO monitoring,analysis and prediction system（SEMAP2.0） in order to markedly improve the operational capability of ENSO monitoring and prediction in BCC/CMA.The SEMAP2.0 integrates several latest results in international ENSO studies and develops many new techniques for ENSO monitoring and prediction further.This new system is made up of five sub-systems including the real-time monitoring,dynamical diagnosis and attribution analysis,physics-based statistical prediction for the two type s of ENSO,interpretation and application of ensemble forecasts in climate model,and analogue-dynamical correction prediction.The 20-yr independent validation shows a relatively highlevel prediction skill that the temporal anomaly correlation score reaches 0.8 in terms of ensemble-mean Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index with 6 months lead.The SEMAP2.0 started running as an operational system in BCC/CMA at the end of 2015 and has issued a bunch of operational products on the website.During its development,this system has been applied to real-time operational applications.It has given a basically reasonable indication for the El Nino fluctuation occurring in the 2014 summer-autumn seasons,accurately predicting the weak central-Pacific El Nino type in the 2014/2015 winter and its continual growth after the 2015 spring as well as the type transferring to the strong eastern-Pacific El Nino type during the 2015 summer.Also,this system has exactly caught the peak intensity and time of the super El Nino event as initiating in September 2015,one season lead,and further predicted that this super event will terminate at the late spring in 2016.