2015年12月至2016年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from December 2015 to February 2016

对2015年12月至2016年2月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称EC和JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验,结果表明:三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能,其中EC模式的预报效果最好。对850 hPa温度场的预报,JP模式的平均预报误差较小,预报性能较好,EC模式对南、北方地区的温度预报均偏高,T639模式对北方地区的温度预报明显偏低。对于2016年1月的一次全国性寒潮过程中地面冷高压的预报,三个模式中T639模式对冷高压的强度预报与零场更为一致,而EC和JP模式的预报以偏弱为主。

The medium-range forecasting performances of T639,ECMWF and Japan models from December2015 to February 2016 are verified and compared.The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes well,of which the performance of ECMWF model is the best.For temperature at 850 hPa,Japan model＇s mean forecast error is smaller than the errors of other two models.ECMWF model forecasts higher temperature for both the northern and southern parts of China,while T639 model produces a lower temperature forecast for northern part of China.For the surface high forecasting during the nationwide cold wave process in January 2016,T639 model performs much better in forecasting the intensity of cold high than ECMWF and Japan models,which underestimate the intensity in most time.