重释李约瑟之谜:经济转型路径演化视角下的兴盛与衰落

Reinterpret Needham Puzzle:Analysis on the rising and declining on the perspective of the path evolution of economic transformation

李约瑟之谜不仅是对现代科技起源的诘问,更是文明转换背景下的经济转型问题。本文从路径生成、稳定与分化三个相互继起的环节比较分析了中西方经济转型路径的演化过程,提出"制度变迁—技术进步—结构转变"具有多向度机制的解释性假说。研究认为,制度初始禀赋孕育出的经济转型路径生成力量构成制度动态约束条件分叉的动力源,技术层面路径构建力量能否实现对制度层面路径依赖力量的有效冲击是科技分化现象产生的关键,系统内选择机制与创新机制作用下的分化路径组合引起了经济形态与增长表现的分流。构建包容性制度环境、转变经济发展模式、重视创新与选择机制的结构转变效应是历史赋予未来转型挑战的规律性启示。

Needham puzzle is not only a question of how the modem science and technology originated, but also an issue of economic transformation under the different civilizations backgrounds. In order to make a comparative analysis on the whole pro- cess of economic transformation between China and the West, we＇ve built a multi-dimensional interpretive hypothesis called ＂institutional changes--technical process--stmctural conversions＂, and treated path evolution as three ensuing hnks including path generation, stability and differentiation. The research suggested that different initial institution endowment could generate different path generation＇ s forces during economic transformation, which constitutes the power sources of the divaricating of dy- namic institutional constraints. Whether the path constructive forces at technology level could have a shock impact on the path dependence forces at institutional level is the key element of the differentiation of science and technology. Besides, under the se- lection and innovation mechanisms of the whole system, the combination of differentiation paths led to the divergence of economic form and growth performance. In addition, constructing more inclusive institutions, changing the pattern of economic development, and attaching importance to the stmctural conversion effect of selection and innovation mechanisms are the historical inspirations to the future economic transformation.