基于系统动力学的长江干线港集疏运压力研究

Research on the Collecting and Distributing Pressure of Yangtze River's Main Ports Based on System Dynamics

为分析长江干线港口集疏运压力的变化趋势,构建集疏运系统动力学模型,明确系统界限并分析港口集疏运系统的结构和因果反馈关系,以此关系为基础建立系统流图并反复修正,并以武汉港为例运用Vensim软件模拟集疏运压力的变化和发展趋势,根据仿真的结果为建设长江干线港口集疏运系统提出有益的建议。

In order to analyze the development tendency of the collecting and distributing pressure of Yangtze River’s main ports,this paper builds system dynamics model of collecting and distributing first,makes clear the boundaries of the system and analyzes the port transportation system structure and the causal feedback relations,then conducts a flow chart and constantly revises it.At last,we take Wuhan port as an example to simulate the changes and development tendency of the collecting and distributing pressure using Vensim,and finally put forward some useful suggestions on the construction of the collecting and distributing system of Yangtze River’s main ports according to the result of simulation.