俄白哈关税同盟对中国与哈萨克斯坦经贸合作的影响——以“丝绸之路经济带”战略为背景

Effects of Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union on the Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Kazakhstan—In the Context of "Silk Road Economic Belt" Strategy

2015年5月8日,国家主席习近平同俄罗斯总统普京举行会谈,一致同意中俄两国要共同推进"丝绸之路经济带"建设同欧亚经济联盟(俄白哈关税同盟基础上组建)建设对接。文章重点分析了俄白哈关税同盟对哈萨克斯坦的贸易效应、中国和哈萨克斯坦双边贸易联系程度、中国对哈萨克斯坦出口贸易额增速及主要出口商品增速、中国对哈萨克斯坦主要进口商品增速的影响,并结合引力模型分析了俄白哈关税同盟对中国和哈萨克斯坦双边贸易的影响。最后,文章结合"丝绸之路经济带"战略背景和主要结论进行了分析,并提出相应的政策建议。

On August 5, 2015, President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and both agreed to jointly promote the interface of ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂ Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union （based on the Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Customs Union）. This paper analyzed the effect of the Customs Union on Kazakhstan＇s trade, China and Kazakhstan bilateral trade, China＇ s trade export growth to Kazakhstan and the main ex- port commodities, and China＇s influence on the growth of main products imported from Kazakhstan. The application of the Gravity Model in this paper analyzed the effects of Russia- Belarus- Kazakhstan Customs Union on the eco- nomic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan. Finally, this paper made corresponding proposals in re- lation to the context of the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative.