云南省边境地区人口分布适宜度研究

On the suitability of the population distribution in the borderlands of Yunnan province

边境地区因其特殊的地缘环境条件逐步成为学界关注的热点,而人口的适度分布是影响边境地区区域安全、稳定与繁荣的关键。本文以云南省的边境地区人口分布适宜度为切入点,从云南边境整体、州市、县级3个尺度,建立人口、资源、环境与发展的PRED模型进行人口分布适宜度分析,结果表明:(1)云南边境地区人口分布适宜度整体低于60,主要原因在于社会经济协调度相对较差;(2)州市尺度:云南东南边境州市人口分布适宜度要好于西北边境州市,人居环境适宜度是导致各州市人口分布适宜度差异的主要因素;(3)县级尺度:云南边境地区人口分布适宜度低于60的县域单元最多,东南边境县域单元人口分布适宜度整体好于西北边境;(4)边境县域分析:滇缅边境县人口分布适宜度整体最低且内部差异最大,滇老边境县人口分布适宜度整体最高且内部差异最小,滇越边境县处于居中水平。

The borderlands have gradually attracted the academic attentions due to their special geo- graphic environments, while the suitability of the population distribution is the key factor influencing the regional security, stability and prosperity. This paper gives an analysis of the suitability of the population distribution at the provincial level, the prefectural level and the county level, and establishes a PRED model covering the factors of population, resources, environment and development. It concludes that the suitability of the population distribution in the borderlands of Yunnan is lower than 60 because of the poor socio-economic coordinationd at the prefectural level, the suitability of the pop- ulation distribution in the southeastern borderland of Yunnan is better than that in the northwestern borderland of Yunnan, while the suitability of the living environment is the major factor for the differences in the suitability of the population distribution; at the county level, the suitability of the population distribution in the borderland is mostly below 60, while the counties in the southeast borderland are better than those in the northwest borderland. The counties close to Myanmar have the lowest suitability of the population distribution and the biggest differences; the counties close to Laos have the best suitability of the population distribution and the least differences; the counties close to Vietnam remain inbetween.