辽宁雪灾区划及降雪影响预评估

The snow disaster zoning and the snowfall impact pre-assessment in Liaoning Province

根据1951-2014年辽宁省各市、县降雪灾害造成的经济损失、雪灾出现的频率,多年平均灾损强度及气象灾变指数,计算各市、县的气象灾损值,并依此值作为雪灾灾度指数来进行辽宁降雪灾害区划.利用1951-2014年辽宁省58个国家级气象站降雪日数(日降雪量≥5 mm)资料和辽宁省降雪灾情资料,采用统计分析、百分位数等方法研究确定不同灾害分区下不同降雪阈值与降雪影响预评估的关系.结果表明:(1)灾害重度区和灾害中度区主要位于辽宁中部城市群或经济发达区域,雪灾多年平均损失为280万元以上,损失程度较重;灾害轻度区和灾害微度区主要位于辽宁东部山区及辽宁西北部山区,雪灾多年平均损失为68万元以上,损失程度较轻;雪灾对辽宁影响最大的受灾体是公路,其次为设施农业.(2)在业务使用中,应用不同灾害分区降雪致灾阈值与受灾体损毁等级的预评估关系,采用定量降水预报自动判断生成降雪灾害预评估结果,能够客观的实现降雪落区不同、服务重点不同,对提高决策气象服务的针对性具有参考作用.

According to the economic loss caused by snow disaster and the frequency of snow disaster from 1951 to 2014 in Liaoning Province,the average loss and meteorological disaster index,the meteorological disaster loss of the prefectures and counties of the province were calculated as a snow disaster index for zoning.Based on the data from 58 national weather stations（daily snowfall ≥5 mm） in Liaoning Province and Liaoning Province snow disaster information from 1951 to 2014,snow disaster was zoned,the thresholds for various zones were determined and snowfall impact pre-assessment was done by using statistical analysis and other methods.The results show：（1） Severe disaster areas and moderate disaster areas are mainly located in urban clusters or economically developed regions in the center of the province,with annual average loss of 2.8 million yuan or more,which should belong to severe loss area.Mild disaster and micro disaster areas are mainly located in eastern mountainous and northwestern mountainous of the province,with annual average loss of 0.68 million yuan or lesser,which should belong to milder loss area.Highways is most damaged by snow disaster,followed by agricultural facilities.（2） Using snow disaster hazard threshold and the snow damage rank in the disaster zones to pre-assess the snowfall impact,together with the quantitative precipitation forecast pre-assessment results generated automatically,will improve the decision-making meteorological service.