艾比湖流域1957-2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析

Changing characteristics of potential evapotranspiration,air temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake basin from 1957 to 2013

使用1957-2013年艾比湖流域6个气象站点的平均大气压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均相对湿度、平均风速、日照百分率以及降水量资料,通过Penman-Monteith方程计算出各个站的月和年潜在蒸散量.利用线性倾向估计、累积距平法和Mann-Kendall法分析了该流域近57年的潜在蒸散量、气温及降水量变化特征.结果表明:近57年来艾比湖流域年潜在蒸散量以-25.05 mm·(10a)^(-1)的速度呈下降趋势.近7年的平均潜在蒸散量与过去50年相比较偏少77.36 mm.年平均气温以0.33℃·(10a)^(-1)的速度上升.近7年的平均气温比过去50年的平均气温增加了1℃.年降水量以7.97 mm·(10a)^(-1)的速度增多.近7年的平均降水量与过去50年的平均降水量相比增多32.45 mm.

Meteorological data（average atmosphere pressure,average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,average relative humidity,average wind speed,percentage of sunshine and precipitation） from 1957- 2013 were collected from six weather stations in Ebinur Lake basin.Monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration were calculated by Penman-Monteith model.The linear regression,cumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the characteristics of potential evapotranspiration,temperature and precipitation changes.The results show that the annual average potential evapotranspiration had decreased with a rate of 25.05 mm ·（10a）-1 during 1957-2013;the average potential evapotranspiration during the later seven years decreased 77.36 mm as compared with that in the former 50 years.Annual average temperature had increased with a rate of 0.33 ℃ ·（10a）-1 during 1957-2013;the average temperature during the later seven years increased 1.0 ℃ as compared with that in the former 50 years.Annual precipitation had increased too,with an increasing rate of 7.97 mm ·（10a）-1,and average precipitation during the later seven years increased 32.45 mm as compared with that in the former 50 years.