阿克苏市城市化发展与建设用地结构变化之间的关联性研究

Association study of the relation between urbanization and urban construction land structure change in Aksu City

通过2000-2013年的统计数据,采用相关统计方法分析了阿克苏市城市化与建设用地结构变化的特点和变化趋势,在此基础上,使用灰色关联法分析其相互关联性.研究表明：人口、社会、经济、环境城市化指标平均权重值依次为0.1327、0.0309、0.0794和0.0260,表明人口因素对城市化发展影响最大,经济和社会因素次之,环境因素最小.研究区主要的建设用地类型为居住用地和工业用地,研究初期和末期在建设用地总面积中所占比重依次为36.96%～45.29%和14.17%～10.38%,始终占最大优势,年均变化速率较大的为仓储用地、特殊用地和对外交通用地,变化速率依次为-19.06%、6.27%和5.36%,而其余6种用地类型年均变化速率相对较小;阿克苏市城市化指标与建设用地指标之间有较强的相互关联性,多年平均关联系数均〉0.65,说明城市化发展与城市建设用地结构变化是相互的、双向的、复杂的动态过程,并说明本文采用的17种城市化指标是影响阿克苏市建设用地结构变化的主要动力因素.针对以上特点,指出阿克苏市城市化过程中存在的一些问题,并提出调整人口结构、控制人口规模、加大对公共服务设施的投入、保护城市环境和有效利用土地资源等一些建议措施.

In this paper,based on the statistical data of urbanization and urban construction land,the characteristics and change trends of urbanization process and urban construction land structure in Aksu City were analyzed,then the relationship between the above two factors during 2000-2013 was examined by using grey relation analysis method.The result indicated that（1） the annual average weight of population,social,economic and environment urbanization index were 0.1327,0.0309,0.0794 and 0.0260,respectively,indicating the influence of population was significant,economic and social factors were the second,and social factors were not obvious comparatively;（2） the main construction land was residential land,accounting for 36.96%～45.29%in the beginning study period and for 14.17%～ 10.38%in the ending study period.The annual average change rates of warehouse land,special use land and intercity transportation land were obvious,accounting for- 19.06%,6.27%and 5.36%,respectively,and the other six land use types were less changed;（3） there was a significant interconnectedness between urbanization index and urban construction land index,with a many year average correlation coefficient greater than 0.65,showing between urbanization developing and urban construction land index there was a tight relation,which was mutual,bidirectional,complex and dynamic process.This demonstrates that the chosen 17 urbanization index are major dynamic factors affecting the urban construction land change in Aksu City.Aimed at the above mentioned characteristics,in this paper,some problems of urbanization process in Aksu City are pointed out and some measures are put forward,such as adjusting population structure,control population size,increasing investment in public service facilities and effective using the limited land resources and so on.