食管癌个体发病风险评估方法

A risk appraisal model of esophageal carcinoma for individual

目的建立多因素的食管癌发病风险评估模型。方法对收集的18篇文献进行综合分析,合并OR值,采用健康危险因素评价的方法,依照Rothman-Keller模型,建立危险分数表。结果建立了有关文化水平、家族史病史、吸烟饮酒、饮食习惯以及情绪的危险分数表,以此用来预测个体将来的食管癌发病风险。结论该模型可以应用于食管癌一级预防,促进群众养成良好的生活方式。

Objective To build a multivariate risk appraisal model of esophageal carcinoma for individuals.Methods A synthesis of 18 studies was carried out,and the OR values were integrated. According to Rothman-Keller model,risk score table was established using the health risk factors. Results A risk score table was established,including education level,cancer family history,digestive diseases history,alcohol,tobacco,diet habits and emotion to predict individual incidence of esophageal carcinoma. Conclusions This model can be used for the primary prevention of esophageal carcinoma,which could promote people to develop healthy lifestyle.