可维修天然气管道系统可靠性增长的数学预测模型

Mathematical prediction model of reliability growth for maintainable gas pipeline system

为了研究可维修天然气管道系统可靠性增长预测问题,结合广义伽玛分布与统计学理论,建立可靠性增长的数学预测模型。采用数字仿真技术,利用点估计、区间估计、标准差和比例系数,对可维修天然气管道系统可靠性增长进行预测并进行预测精度分析,结合具体应用实例验证其有效性。研究表明:将失效分布的寿命解析思想应用到可维修天然气管道系统可靠性增长预测中,可以有效提高预测精度,增加了数据量,更好地解决了管道等小子样系统因数据不充分引起的可靠性增长预测精度问题,同时为管道预维修及后维修提供了理论指导。(表1,参10)

In this paper, in order to predict the reliability growth of maintainable gas pipeline system, a mathematical model is established by combing the generalized gamma distribution and statistical theory. In this model, the digital simulation technology is adopted to predict the reliability growth of maintainable gas pipeline system and analyze the prediction precision with point estimation, interval estimation, standard deviation and proportionality coefficient. Moreover, the effectiveness of this model is verified by practical application. The study shows that the concept of life analysis for failure distribution can be used for reliability growth prediction of maintainable gas pipeline system, so as to effectively improve the prediction precision. Increased amount of data is conducive to avoid low precision of reliability growth prediction caused by insufficient data of small samples like pipeline. The model can provide theoretical guidance for pre-maintenance and maintenance.（1 Table, 10 References）