工业革命中生产组织方式变革的历史考察与展望——基于康德拉季耶夫长波的分析

A Retrospect of the Evolution of Production Organization in Industrial Revolutions and Beyond——An Analysis Based on Kondratiev Long Wave

对当前新一轮产业变革可以按照技术经济范式核心组件协同演化的框架加以剖析。新一轮产业变革可能是第六次技术经济范式(也即第六次康德拉季耶夫长波)的导入期,将在如下方面发生"革命":数据要素将成为新型核心投入,以新一代互联网技术为支撑的通信基础设施的重要性超过交通基础设施,以数据和新一代互联网技术驱动的制造业智能化将引领国民体系的智能化;最终,大规模生产也将受到严峻挑战,大规模定制化和社会化制造等新的生产组织方式将兴起。为此,我们必须从技术经济范式的视角认识新一轮产业变革的进程。在此背景下,我国深入推进工业化不仅要如《中国制造2025》那样重视装备工业的高端化,更需要重视制造业各环节数据要素的利用和新一代互联网基础设施的配套升级,增强各类政策之间的协调联动。

This paper employs the orthodoxy Techno-economic paradigm theory of evolutionary eco- nomics, and brings the currently emerging ＂new industrial revolution＂ back into a two centuries＇ global industrialization and proposes that the ＂new industrial revolution＂ would be grounded on estab- lished theory by analyzing the co-evolution of core components of in the shift of techno-economic para- digms. The ＂new industrial revolution＂ is likely to be an extension period of the 6th techno-economie paradigm （or the 6th Kondratiev long wave） and introduces revolutional changes as follows： data would be a new core input; the significance of communication infrastructure based on new internet technology would exceed traffic infrastructure, and the intelligent manufacturing based on data and new communication infrastructure is going to build a smart national system. As a consequence, the dominating mass production model is challenged by emerging mass customization and social produc- tion. China should move its policy from emphasizing the high-end equipment industries to the utilization of data and upgrading new supportive communication infrastructure, and improving the co- ordination between different policies.