渤海沿山东水域沙洲潮间带湿地格局演变的预测

Predicting the evolution of shoal-type intertidal wetland in the south Bohai sea along Shandong coastline

利用模型方法预测了不同年份平均高潮位数据和平均低潮位数据,利用地理信息系统方法分析了未来沙洲潮间带湿地的空间分布。研究结果表明:(1)在渤海沿山东水域,未来的沙洲潮间带湿地将形成于莱州湾的西部和南部。(2)莱州湾西部、南部沙洲潮间带湿地形成之后,将经历由条带状沙洲潮间带湿地到不对称环状沙洲潮间带湿地的演变过程。(3)未来在莱州湾西部、南部沙洲潮间带湿地的形成,将有助于东营、潍坊获得湿地的生态效益和盐田、养殖池塘的经济效益。

This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of intertidal wetlands in the south Bohai Sea along Shandong Coastline. The mean low water（ MLW） lines and mean high water springs（ MHWS） lines of wetlands were modeled for the period of 2010 - 2100 at 10-year intervals by using recorded mean high and low water levels. Modeling results show that intertidal wetlands will be clustered in the south and west parts of the Laizhou Bay,evolving from the initial strip-shaped to the asymmetric circular ones. These wetlands will help the city of Dongying and the city of Weifang to obtain the ecological benefit from the wetlands and the economic benefit from salt pan and Aquaculture ponds.