《服务贸易协定》会否多边化?

Prospects of Multilateralized TISA

由"服务业挚友"集团发起的《服务贸易协定》(TISA)谈判已历时四年有余,在制定"新的和强化的纪律"和做出"高雄心水平"的市场准入承诺方面取得了积极进展。对于协定以何种法律形式生效,官方文件《服务贸易协定谈判框架》认定是以诸边谈判为起点,争取将来条件具备时再实现多边化,继而成为GATS2.0。结合谈判进展来看,实现多边化已呈现出一些有利条件,如协定的框架内容较好地做到了与GATS相适配,欧盟等谈判方的积极态度等;但也面临不少困难,如美国与金砖国家对待协定的诉求和利益存在明显错位等。跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)的达成将激励TISA谈判方加快其进程,但预计多边化是一个反复博弈的动态过程,充满不确定性。中国应当积极主动作为,推动TISA实现多边化。

The negotiations of the Trade in Service Agreement(TISA), which are initiated by the'ReallyGood Friends of Services(RGF)', a sub-group of members of the World Trade Organization,have lasted more than four years and much headway has been made in the development of thenew and enhanced discipline and the high level of ambition of market access commitments.Regarding in what legal form the agreement will come into effect, the official document, theService Trade Agreement Negotiation Framework, says that it will be based on plurilateralnegotiations before evolving into multilateral negotiations when time is ripe, ultimatelybecoming the GATS2.0. Based on negotiation progress, there have been some favorablefactors for achieving multilateralized negotiation, such as the good comparability between theframework of the TISA and the GATS and the positive attitudes of the EU and other parties.That said, there have also been some challenges, such as the apparent mismatching demandsand interests of the United States and the BRICS. The conclusion of the TPP will promptconcerned parties to accelerate the negotiation process of TISA, but it is expected that it willbe a dynamic process of complicated gaming among different parties and will be full ofuncertainties. China should take the initiative to promote the multilateralization of the TISA.