流通成本变动与制造业空间集聚分析及对策

Analysis on Changes in Circulation Cost and Manufacturing Agglomeration and the Countermeasures

在空间经济学中,流通成本与制造业空间集聚是学界热门议题,一系列与区域贸易和政府决策相关的关系成为流通理论关注的热点。现有理论或实证研究从微观角度分析流通经济现象,为考察流通产业提供了微观建模思想。基于国内外相关文献,融合双边市场理论和中心—外围模型,利用1996—2014年数据,通过模拟法分析流通成本变动影响制造业空间集聚的机制,基于面板回归和空间计量方法进行检验发现,我国省域间流通成本差距正在不断拉大,流通成本指数和空间溢出指标在控制了物价变量与运输条件变量后对地区制造业集聚仍然保持正影响,地区流通成本与工业集聚水平为倒U型关系。这充分说明,贸易环境与地方政府关系密切,在产业转型升级过程中,考虑到我国区域经济发展的差异性,加之产业再分工、贸易保护主义等因素影响,严重阻碍了市场一体化进程。因此,经济新常态背景下,为更好地改善地区投资环境,充分发挥流通服务业对制造业发展的推动作用,增加流通服务业投资,促进流通服务业持续稳定发展,一要政府转变观念,提高对流通服务业的重视程度;二要提高流通服务业发展水平,促进制造业发展;三要制定合理的产业政策,调整产业结构;四要引导与促进产业间融合,提高流通业与制造业协同发展程度。

In the spatial economics,the circulation cost and manufacturing agglomeration is a classic topic in academic circles,and the related theory of regional trade and circulation of the local government is the hot issue. The authors reveal the existing economic theory from the microscopic view of circulation economic phenomenon,which provides the micro modeling ideas of circulation industry. Based on the related literature at home and abroad,the ＂two-sided market theory＂ and ＂fusion coreperiphery ＂ model,and the data from 1996 to 2014,the authors carry out the simulation analysis on the influencing mechanism of circulation cost on manufacturing agglomeration. Based on the inspection panel regression and space measurement,it is found that provincial gaps of circulation cost is widening,the index of the circulation cost and spatial spillover index has the positive impact on regional manufacturing agglomeration after controlling the price and transportation condition variables,and there is the inverted Ushaped relationship between regional circulation cost and industrial agglomeration level. So,in the light of economic new normal,we should,first,transfer government idea and pay more attention to circulation service industry;second,we should improve the development level of circulation service industry and promote the development of manufacturing industry;third,we should formulate the rational industrial policy and adjust the industrial structure;and fourth,we should guide and promote integration among industries and improve the development level of the coordinate development in the circulation and manufacturing industry.