信息不对称、贷款人类型与羊群效应——基于人人贷网络借贷平台数据的研究

Information Asymmetry,Type of Lenders and Herding Effect:The Research Based on Data from Renrendai Platform

本文从信息不对称和贷款人类型的视角,选取"人人贷"平台数据,对网络借贷平台上贷款人羊群效应及其影响因素进行了实证研究。结果发现,网络借贷平台上存在着贷款人羊群效应,2012年后,平台采取的风险控制措施未能达到预期效果。信息不对称是影响贷款人羊群效应的重要因素,其中,硬信息的不对称会强化贷款人羊群效应,在硬信息不足的情况下,软信息的不对称也会加剧这种效应。贷款人专业能力对羊群效应具有显著影响,贷款频次较低或新近注册的贷款人表现出更强的羊群效应。

P2P lending is the direct lending between the borrowers and the lenders through the online lending platform.By enabling the borrowers and the lenders to broken through the limits of the circle of acquaintance and region,the internet technology greatly extends the boundary of transaction of P2 P lending.However,supervisor,institution and the lenders all concern about whether the individual lenders could make lending decision rationally in P2 P lending.Although current literatures provide evidence that herding effect exists in P2 P lending platform,Chinese lenders＇ behaviors in P2 P lending platform have their special characteristics.First,individual credit system is more mature in developed countries than in China.Compared with Chinese borrowers,borrowers＇ credit status in developed countries is relatively transparent.Chinese lenders＇ decision making process is different from those in developed countries.Second,there is few studies that focus on the influence of information asymmetry and type of lenders on the lenders herding effect.We argue that lenders＇ own characteristics are important factors that influence their behavior.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the impact of the lenders＇ characteristics on their herding effect.Based on the theory of information asymmetry and type of lenders,this paper collects data from 454584 loan requests on Renrendai platform for the period beginning October,2010 through January,2015.By examining these data,we first analyze the strength of the herding effect on P2 P lending market in China.Then,we further evaluate the impact of information asymmetry on the lenders＇ herding effect.We also compare whether the herding effects from different types of lenders are the same.After these examines,this paper proposes suggestion about how to overcome the lenders＇ herding effect and improve the efficiency of P2 P lending market.We found that the herding effect exists in the P2 P lending platform in China,such as Renrendai platform.The risk control measures that the Renrendai platform has implemented since 2012 do not weaken the lenders＇ herding effect.Information asymmetry is a positive factor that affects the lenders＇ herding effect.The asymmetry of hard information would strengthen the lenders＇ herding effect.The asymmetry of soft information would intensify the lenders＇ herding effect when the hard information is not sufficient.The level of lenders＇ professional ability which is measured by lending experience has had a significant impact on the lenders＇ herding effect.Lenders who have fewer lending experiences have strong herding effect and so are lenders whose accounts have been registered in the platform recently.This is because lenders who have rich lending experiences could make their own decision instead of following other＇s behavior.Lenders who are new to P2 P lending are lack of the ability of independent judgment.Therefore,their behavior show a strong herding effect.According to these empirical results,this study proposes the following suggestions to perfect the P2 P lending market in China.First,improve the efficiency of the regulation on P2 P lending.Based on current regulation framework,it is necessary to establish maneuverable detailed rules and form the dynamic regulation mode which combines the ex-ante,in-between and ex-post supervisions.The big data technology could also be implemented to monitor the whole procedure of P2 P lending.Second,the P2 P lending platform should place great emphasis on improving the lenders＇ information disclosure mechanism to reduce the probability of lenders＇ herding under the situation of information asymmetry.The platform should also ensure the information they disclose is real and efficient in order to prevent misleading the public.Third,the qualified investor education should be enhanced by introducing the financial basics and technology principles of P2 P lending to the public.In this way,lenders could improve their risk recognition and prevention ability,and the herding effect would be weakened.