收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线是必然还是或然——力量对比决定的一般趋势和特殊演变

Is the Kuznets' Inverted-U Curve of Income Distribution Inevitable or Contingent——The General Tendency and Special Evolution Decided by Power Contrast

面对收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线在学术界的持续争论,本文将收入分配差距按其形成原因分解为自然性收入差距、制度性收入差距和结构性收入差距,说明一个经济体的收入差距走势取决于制度公平与不公平的力量对比,以及由技术创新引起的"领跑"与"追赶"的力量对比。在此基础上,科学地解释了库兹涅茨倒U曲线、正U之谜和东亚奇迹,并对各发展中国家的收入分配演变进行了最新的经验观察,得出结论:收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线代表了人类社会由传统向现代发展的现代化进程中收入差距演变的一般趋势,但并非必然趋势。进行公平的制度建设,加快对传统的现代化改造,选择能增加低收入人群就业和收入的经济增长方式,有利于缓解发展中国家收入差距过大的问题,使库兹涅茨拐点尽早到来。

It is a crucial question in Economics how income distribution evolves in the modernization process.Kuznets（1955） argues that the income inequality will widen in the early phases of economic growth when the transition from the pre-industrial to the industrial civilization is most rapid;become stabilized for a while;and then narrow in the later phases.Afterwards Scholars name this argument as ＂ Kuznets＇ Inverted-U Curve of Income Distribution＂.This hypothesis had been treated as an unquestionable economic law from its initiation to 1970 s.Then this black box was opened in the 1980 s and early 1990 s.As this argument contradicted to some scholars＇ empirical results and some economies＇ practices,it was criticized and questioned by many scholars.After the mid-1990 s,this argument went into a period of ongoing conversation.Even though some scholars denied this argument,evidences had been found to support it by other scholars.Now more scholars turn to seek the profound factors that determine the evolution of income distribution.Facing the continuing conversation on the Kuznets＇ inverted-U curve of income distribution in academia,this paper firstly decomposes income inequality into three parts according to its causality：natural inequality which is caused by the difference of person＇s endowment and effort,institutional inequality which is caused by unfairness and discrimination of institutions,and structural inequality which is caused by the variation of productivity of different activities.As natural inequality is inevitable,the whole income inequality tendency of an economic entity is decided by the institutional power contrast between fairness and unfairness,and the structural power contrast between ＂lead＂ and ＂catch-up＂ caused by technological innovation.This paper then scientifically explicates the Kuznets＇ inverted-U curve.In the early phases of modernization,a society experiences a structure transformation from an agriculture-based to an industry-based economy caused by the industrial revolution during which the power of ＂lead＂ is stronger than ＂catch-up＂ resulting in the rise of income inequality.Moreover the unfair of institutions in this period enhances the rise of inequality.As the modernization progresses,the proportion of modern in the society will exceed that of tradition gradually.In the later phases of modernization,the power of ＂catch-up＂ outstrips ＂lead＂,institutions become fairer as the society＇s wealth become more affluent,and these changes impose a pressure of income inequality to decline.So the income inequality will first rise then decline in the modernization process.This general tendency is harmonious with the great U turn conundrum and some special evolutions,such as the East Asia miracle.The rising inequality of America and Europe in recent decades is mainly triggered by structure readjustment which is caused by information revolution and this does not belong to the area of Kuznets ＇ curve.The Taiwan case indicates that the Kuznets ＇ inversed-U curve is not inevitable.Taiwan＇s relative average distribution of land and capital in the early stage and special economic growth path shaped the special evolution of income distribution.This paper go further to conducts a newest empirical observation on the income inequality evolution of some typical countries.At last,we conclude：the Kuznets＇ inverted-U curve of income distribution is a general tendency but not inevitable in the modernization process of human society from tradition to modern.Some actions are beneficial for the alleviation of developing countries＇ large income inequality and make the Kuznets＇ inflexion happen early,such as institutional improvement,modernizing tradition quickly,and choosing an economic growth pattern that is favorable to the poor.