基于灰色关联视角的物流业与制造业联动发展研究——以长三角为例

Research on Interactive Development between Manufacturing and Logistics Industry in Yangtze River Delta

运用灰色关联理论,基于长三角地区2004-2013年制造业和物流业的数据,分别测算了整体制造业以及要素禀赋差异下的制造业与物流业关联度,得出以下结论：（1）制造业发展规模是物流业发展的胁迫因素,居民购买力水平、电信化以及信息化程度是制造业发展限制因素。（2）物流业固定资产投资是劳动密集型行业的重要影响因素,物流业从业人员是资本密集型行业的关键影响因素,公路货物周转量是技术密集型产业的制约因素。（3）不同交通运输方式的货运量与制造业规模关联度普遍较大,但货物周转量与多种制造业因素关联度大。

Using the grey correlation theory,based on the manufacturing and logistics industry data of Yangtze River Delta region from 2004 to 2013,this paper measures the correlation between manufacturing and logistic industry,and the manufacturing is analyzed according to different factor endowments.Our empirical results show that：（1）the scale of manufacturing industry have the most significant correlation with the logistics industry,the purchasing power of residents,the level of telecommunication and Information Technology are important as well;（2）fixed assets investment in logistic industry is significantly related to the labor-intensive industry.Employees are the key factor of the capital-intensive industry.However,the road freight turnover is strong related to technology-intensive industry;and（3）the freight volume is strongly related to the manufacturing scale in different ways of transportation,but the freight turnover is associated with a variety of manufacturing factors.