水利基础设施投资与城镇化进程的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Relationship between water infrastructure investment and urbanization process: an empirical analysis based on VAR model

运用VAR模型,构建我国水利基础设施投资额与城镇化率之间的动态关系系统,重点分析两者之间的相互关系和影响机制。Granger因果关系分析表明,水利基础设施投资额是城镇化率变化的Granger原因。通过VAR(4)模型可知,水利基础设施投资额与城镇化率构成的指标体系是长期稳定的。通过脉冲响应分析与方差分解分析可知,长期来看,水利基础设施投资会加速我国的城镇化进程,但在水利基础设施的建设期和运营期,这种影响的大小会有所不同。

The dynamic relationship between the water infrastructure investment and the urbanization rate is established by using the VAR model,and the correlation and influence mechanism are analyzed. The Granger causality analysis shows that the water infrastructure investment is the Granger cause for change of the urbanization rate. VAR（ 4） model indicates that the index system composed of the water infrastructure investment and the urbanization rate is of long-term stability. Through the analysis of pulse responses and variance decomposition,the investment in the water infrastructure will accelerate the urbanization process in China in the long term. However,the influence will be slightly different during the construction period and operation period of water infrastructure.