天津市海水淡化需求预测及其经济价值测算

Demand prediction and economic value estimation of seawater desalination in Tianjin

对天津市用水需求和供水能力进行分析估算。结果表明:为填补水资源供需缺口,预计到2020年,全市对海水淡化水的需求量约为3亿m3,海水淡化工程规模将达到80万t/d。根据海水淡化水用途,运用比例分摊、生产函数等计算方法,量化测算得海水淡化水用于居民生活、工业生产和浓海水综合利用的经济价值分别为39.75元/m3、96.8元/m3和2.7亿元/a。研究成果旨在为充分认识海水淡化水的经济效用和价值,科学决策海水淡化产业发展提供参考。

Through the analysis and estimation of water demand and supply capacity in Tianjin,predicted by 2020,the gap between the supply and the demand of water resources is about300 million m3,which needs the seawater desalination to fill.The scale of desalination project is expected to reach 800 000 tons / day. According to the purposes of seawater desalination,using the proportion assigned method and the Cobb-Douglas production function,the calculated economic value of seawater desalination for domestic water, industry production and comprehensive utilization of concentrated seawater are 39. 75 yuan / m3, 96. 8 yuan/m3 and 270 million yuan / year,respectively. The research results aims to fully understand the value of seawater desalination,and provides references for the scientific decisions of its development.