基于投入产出表的中国国际贸易隐含能分析

Energy embodied in the international trade of China:an input-output approach

在可持续发展的理论框架下,中国面临日益增加的能源需求压力,需要高度重视对外贸易对能源消费的影响。本文利用虚拟国假设选择韩国的技术系数作为中国进口产品的技术系数,基于中韩两国的投入产出表,估算了2002年和2007年中国的进出口贸易隐含能及其部门分布。结果表明,运用国内技术系数计算进口节能量,发现我国从2002年的净能源输入变为2007年的净能源输出;按照韩国技术系数计算进口实际隐含能,发现我国始终是能源净出口国。对各部门进出口隐含能的分析表明制造业是影响我国进出口隐含能的决定性因素,占隐含能总量的份额始终在80%以上。

As a developing country and the world＇s largest exporter and second largest importer, China is confronted with fast-growing energy demand. The impacts of foreign trade on its energy consumption are non-trivial. Based on a hypothesized-country analysis, this paper finds that South Korea best matches the hypothesized country with regard to technical coefficients of China＇s imports. With the 2002 and 2007 input-output tables of both countries, tradeembodied energy consumption in China and its sectoral breakdown are calculated. The results show, if domestic technical coefficients are used to calculate embodied energy, China would shift from a net importer of embodied energy in 2002 to a net exporter in 2007. If South Korea＇s technical coefficients are used in the calculation, China has always been a net exporter of embodied energy from 2002 to 2007. The analyses on sectoral breakdown reveal that manufacturing industries account for more than 80% of total embodied energy.