预测-综合指标评价模型在河流健康评价中的应用--以江苏省骨干河流健康评价为例

Prediction-comprehensive Index Assessment Model in the Evaluation of River Health

针对江苏省河流健康状况,提出一种新的河流健康评价方法体系,即预测-综合指标评价模型,此模型由3种预测方法和3种综合指标方法构成。首先对江苏省16条骨干河流进行探索性评价,筛选模型体系中对江苏省河流健康评价的最适方法,再将精简后的模型应用于江苏省整体河流的健康评价。结果表明,江苏省河流总体处于"亚健康"(Ⅱ等)水平,故需重视河湖健康管理、维护河流健康。

For the health of the river in Jiangsu Province,this paper proposes a new system of river health assessment method.This model consists of three prediction methods and three comprehensive index methods.Firstly,exploratory evaluating sixteen backbone rivers in Jiangsu Province,filtering method of screening model system to assess river health in Jiangsu Province.After the model is streamlined and then applied to evaluate river health of the overall Jiangsu Province.The results show that overall rivers in Jiangsu Province are in a state of＂sub-health＂（Class II,etc.）level.So it is necessary to pay attention to river and lake health management,and maintaining healthy life of rivers.