“全面两孩”政策下空巢老年人对子女生育二孩态度及影响因素--以北京市为例

Determinants of Parenthood Attitude toward Adult Children's Second Birth under the Two-Child Policy: The Case of Beijing

基于2015年底北京市空巢家庭调查数据考察"全面两孩"政策背景下空巢老年人对子女生育二孩的态度,结果表明:空巢老年人的政策知晓率极高,支持、反对和不干涉子女生育二孩的各占约1/3;一旦子女生育二孩,近七成空巢老年人愿意提供物质或劳务支持;养老等功利性目的并非希望子女生育二孩的首要原因,经济负担、健康顾虑和照料匮乏是阻碍子女生育二孩的主要因素。利用二元logistic模型考察影响因素,与子女关系好、身体健康、有配偶等因素会显著提高老年人对子女生育二孩的支持概率,而养老观念开放、受教育程度高和空巢时间长等因素则会显著降低支持概率。空巢老年人的性别、年龄、经济水平、养老选择等因素对因变量没有显著影响。

This study aims at investigating parenthood attitude toward adult children＇s second birth under the ＂two-child＂policy based on the Beijing Empty Nest Family Survey in 2015.The survey shows that the elderly present high awareness rate of the ＂two-child＂policy; old parents who support,oppose to,or hold the idea of non-interference to their married children＇s second birth account for one third respectively; almost 70% of the elderly would support their adult children＇s second birth through economic assistance or child care; utilitarian purposes,such as old age care,are no longer primary reasons for second birth; economic cost,concern about mothers＇ or baby＇s health and lack of child care resources become the top three factors preventing second birth.Having a good relationship with adult children,good health condition and being currently married have a significantly positive effect on parenthood supportive attitudes toward adult children＇s second birth; open-minded idea on endowment,education and duration of the empty nest period significantly reduce the probability of the elderly to support children＇s second birth; and no significant effect is found with gender,age,economic condition and preferable place for old age life.