经济增长与老龄化对医疗费用增长的空间效应分析

Research on the Spatial Effects of Economic Growth and Ageing on Growth of Medical Expense

目的:研究经济增长与人口老龄化对医疗费用增长的空间效应影响,并提出相应的建议。方法:基于2005—2012年的8年时间数据,31个省的横截面数据,以人口老龄化程度与人均GDP作为解释变量,医疗费用作为被解释变量,利用不含空间效应的面板数据模型跟含有空间效应的面板模型进行分析,通过Wald跟LR统计量选出最好的空间面板模型。结果:变量间存在空间效应,而且老龄化跟经济增长都对医疗费用的增加具有显著性的影响,老龄化对医疗费用的增加的影响更大。结论:鼓励做好老年医疗卫生服务工作,加强老年人的医疗保健工作,定期体检,控制医疗价格的变化,提高人均收入,放开生育政策等。

Objective：To study the spatial effects of economic growth and ageing on the growth of medical expense and propose re-lated suggestions.Methods：Based on the cross-section data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2012, taking the aging degree and per capi-ta GDP as the explanatory variables and medical expense as the explained variable, the panel models with and without spatial effectwere analyzed to select the best spatial panel model through Wald and LR statistics.Results：There was spatial effect among variables.The aging and economic growth had significant effect on the growth of medical expense. Aging had bigger effect on the increase of med-ical expense.Conclusion：It needed to encourage the health services for the elderly, enhance the health care for the elderly, conductregular physical examination, control the changes of medical prices, increase the per capita income and open the family planning policy.