年龄对医疗费用增长的影响:基于分位数回归模型的分析

The Influence of Age on the Growth of Medical Expense: Based on the Analysis of Quantile Regression Model

目的:研究年龄等因素对医疗费用增加的影响,并给出相应的建议。方法:基于CHNS数据,利用参数分位数回归模型、非参数分位数模型建模分析。结果:年龄对医疗费用增加具有显著影响,且在不同分位数的影响不同,分位数越大,影响越大,同时其他变量对医疗费用增加也有一定的影响。结论:由于年龄等因素对医疗费用的增加具有较大影响,为了减少医疗费用支出,应推进居民医疗制度建设,扩大医疗保障覆盖面,提高老人的健康水平。

Objective：To study the effect of age and other factors on the increase of medical expenses and put forward sugges-tions.Methods：Based on CHNS data, parameters quantile regression and nonparametric quantile regression model were applied toconduct the modeling analysis.Results：Age had significant effect on the growth of medical expense. The effects of different quantilesvaried. The greater the quantile was, the greater the effect would be. Meanwhile, other variables also had certain effect on the increaseof medical expenses.Conclusion：Since age and other factors had great influence on medical expenses, it needed to promote the con-struction of resident medical system, expand the coverage of medical insurance and improve the health level of the elderly so as to de-crease medical expenditure.