中国服务贸易进口增长的三元分解

Ternary Decomposition of China's Import Growth of Service Trade

基于2000-2013年中国服务贸易进口数据,运用货物贸易增长边际分析法的思想,将服务贸易进口市场份额在整体和分部门情况下分别进行数量集约边际、质量集约边际和种类扩展边际的三元分解,以探究中国服务贸易进口增长问题。实证结果显示,粗放型的数量增长是中国服务贸易进口增长的主导因素,而质量和种类增长则在样本期内表现出不稳定的波动趋势。与服务贸易强国相比,中国服务贸易进口产品的多元化程度低,进口质量水平波动大,且种类边际动态演进的发展趋势与发达国家背道而驰。如何在服务贸易进口规模不断扩张的同时实现其发展的"质类齐增",是改善中国服务贸易稳定性差、逆差形势严峻所必须面临的重要课题。

Based on China＇s import data of service trade from 2000 to 2013 and the idea of marginal analysis methods in goods trade growth,we break the service trade import market share down three elements in the case of the overall and sub division respectively,which include quantity intensive margin,quality intensive margin and variety extended margin,to explore problems of China＇s service trade import growth. The empirical results show that the import of China＇s service trade is mainly dependent on the number of marginal growth,while marginal contribution of the quality and variety during the sample period show the unstable variation trend. Compared with service trade power,China＇ s service trade import products have lower diversification level,and import quality have larger fluctuation. Moreover,the developing trend of the marginal dynamic evolution of the species is contrary to the developed countries. How to expand the scale of service trade and achieve its development of ＂ quality class together＂ is an important issue to improve the stability of China＇s service trade and deficit situation.