中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调原因分析

The reason of land urbanization faster than population urbanization in China

运用城市用地增长弹性系数指标对2000年以后中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调状况进行分析,发现全国及大多数省市的人口城镇化与土地城镇化失衡,土地城镇化速度远高于人口城镇化速度。人口与土地城镇化协调性差的根本原因在于产业重构和转移,国际战略格局变化、国家建设重心转移推动土地城镇化先于人口城镇化发展,国家城镇化战略实施、城镇化方针转变更有利于破除土地城镇化的制度障碍,行政区划调整、政府管理体制改革削弱了土地征收征用的阻力,产业园区、新城建设等城市规划实践直接推动了城市扩张,社会转型加剧了失调程度、助推城市扩张。在今后发展中,土地资源瓶颈和可持续发展战略的实施可能会对失调起反向作用。

This paper,by means of the elastic coefficient of urban land growth,analyses how population urbanization coordinates with land urbanization in China after 2000. It finds that there exists an imbalance nationally and in most provinces and municipalities,with land urbanization being much quicker than population urbanization. Industry restructuring and transfer is found to be the main cause of the imbalance,and the implementation of national urbanization strategies and the shift of the focus of national construction help eliminate the constitutional obstacles of land urbanization. Meanwhile,the adjustment of administrative districts and the reform of governance weaken the difficulties in land expropriation,urban planning practices such as industry parks and new town development directly promotes the urban expansion,and social transformation aggravates the imbalance and spurs the urban expansion. In the future development,the bottleneck of land resources and the implementation of sustainable development strategies may play an offsetting role for the imbalance.