2015年世界宏观经济形势分析及2016年展望

Analysis of the World Macroeconomic Situation in 2015 and the Perspectives in 2016

2015年,全球经济不尽如人意。发达经济体温和复苏,但新兴市场和发展中经济体的增长已经连续第五年下滑。大宗商品跌价、贸易和资本流动疲软以及一系列金融波动事件耗竭了全球经济活力,使2015年全球经济增长低于预期。全球GDP实现3.1%左右的增长,低于2014年3.3%的增速。2016年全球经济预计增长2.8%,较2015年的2.6%有所上升,但不确定因素很多,风险较大。为使全球经济尽快实现正常增长,需要各国的宏观经济政策发挥作用,特别是发达经济体的政策应该在全球经济中起到更好的作用,新兴经济体应该降低经济风险、尽快稳定经济增长,同时要加强国际的宏观经济合作,降低全球经济风险。

In 2015, the global economy is not as good as expected.Developed economies have recovered regularly,but the growth in e- merging markets and developing economies has declined for the fifth year consecutively.The decline in the value of commodities, trade and capital flows weakness and a series of financial fluctuation events in the depletion of the global economic activity make the global e- conomic growth lower than expected in 2015.The global GDP growth in 2015 is around 2.6%,less than the growth rate of 3.3% in 2014. The global economy in 2016 is expected to grow by 2.8%, compared with 2.6% in 2015, it has increased, but many uncertain factors still exist and the risks become greater.In order to make the global economy achieve the normal growth rate as soon as possible, all countries should ensure their macroeconomic policies playing a role, especially for the developed countries whose policies should play a better role in the whole global economy, while the emerging economies should reduce their economic risks and keep their economic growth stable as soon as possible.At the same time,it is necessary to strengthen the international macroeconomic cooperation and decrease the risks of global economy.