多部门经济、异质性技术冲击与中国经济波动

Multi-Sector Economy,Heterogeneous Technology Shocks and China's Economic Fluctuations

通过建立一个包含消费品生产部门与投资品生产部门的NK-DSGE模型,并基于这一模型考察了异质性技术冲击的宏观经济效应。模型整体拟合优度检验的结果表明,所建立的包含异质性技术冲击的模型相对较好地拟合了我国的现实数据。技术冲击的脉冲响应显示,消费品生产部门技术冲击对于宏观经济具有扩张效应,而投资品生产部门技术冲击对于宏观经济则具有紧缩效应。因此,在实施劳动力市场稳定化政策的过程中,如果政府推行对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策,那么转变经济增长方式将是推行这一政策的一个重要前提。

By constructing a NK-DSGE model including consumption and investment goods manufacturers,the effects of heterogeneous technology shocks are investigated. The results of model fitness testing state that the model with heterogeneous technology shocks fits China＇s actual data much better.The impulse response function of technology shocks shows that technology shocks from consumption goods manufacturers have a expansionary effect on macro-economy, however the shocks from investment goods manufacturers have a contractionary effect.Therefore, if the government carrys out the monetary policy reacting to the labor market to stabilize the labor mar- ket, changing the pattern of economic growth is an important precondition.