土地集约化利用评价及其实证研究

The Empirical Research on Process Evaluation of Land Intensive Use in China

土地集约利用评价是个热点研究话题,然而现有研究基本都属于"土地集约利用静态评价",结果具有很强的初始依赖性。文章认为,应开展土地集约利用动态评价,亦即土地集约化利用评价;"土地集约化利用评价"是依据土地生产率的变化来评判土地集约利用程度,存在集约化度评价和指标体系评价两种方法;土地利用集约化度可被定义为是土地生产率的提高对产出增长的贡献率,据此可将土地利用分为完全粗放化、高度粗放化、粗放化主导、二元平衡、集约化主导、高度集约化、完全集约化等模式。实证研究发现:12003—2013年度,中国超大城市、特大城市、中大城市、中小城市和小城市的土地利用都属于集约化主导模式,集约化分值分别为66.64、65.83、62.15、63.36和62.46,而中国大城市土地利用接近于二元平衡模式,集约化分值为49.82;2中国城市土地集约化利用存在2003—2006、2007—2010和2011—2013年三个明显的波动周期,但不同规模城市之间在周期长度和波动幅度方面显著不同。

Land intensive use evaluation is one hot topic in China. However, the exiting researches basically are the state evaluation of land intensive use, whose results have strong dependence on the initials. We propose to evaluate the process of land intensive use, and construct a research framework to push it forward. According to theory study, process evaluation of land intensive use is the judgment of land use intensity based on land productivity change, and there are two methods, namely, the land use intensification method and the indicators system method. We argue that land use intensification can be defined and measured as the contribution rate of land productivity improvement to output growth.According to the value of land use intensification, we can distinguish the land use process into different patterns,including the completely extensive pattern, the highly extensive pattern, the dominantly extensive pattern, the dual balanced pattern, the dominantly intensive pattern, the highly intensive pattern, and the completely intensive pattern.Through an empirical study, we work out that between 2003 and 2013 in China, the average values of land use intensification are respectively 66.64 for the megacities, 65.83 for the super- large cities, 62.15 for the sub- large cities,63.36 for the middle- sized cities and 62.46 for the small cities, whose land use are all assigned to the dominantly intensive pattern. While, the large cities＇ land use is the dual balanced pattern, whose average value of land use intensification is 49.82. And we find out that the process of urban land intensive use in China has three obvious cycles,including the 2003- 2006 first cycle, the 2007- 2010 second cycle, and the 2011- 2013 third cycle. However, cities of different size have quite different cycle lengths and fluctuation ranges.